Here is the actual number of troops deployed in Jammu and Kashmir (2023)

When it comes to Jammu and Kashmir, India has always been on the receiving end of a massive propaganda machine. Unsurprisingly, one of the main actors providing anti-India propaganda and news is Pakistan. Pakistan has always been very good at using the offices of Western journalists and numerous organizations to further its interest and paint India as an occupying force in Jammu and Kashmir. Indeed, as the sordid saga of Ghulam Nabi Fai shows, Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) has even managed to influence notable Indian journalists, tracking experts and other self-proclaimed thinkers to advance Pakistani interests at the expense of Indian concerns. . .

One of the pet propaganda theories that has long emanated from Pakistan is that India has 700,000 troops stationed in the Kashmir valley for the express purpose of containing the Kashmiri people. As Ajai Shukla observes into beArticle on the same subject:

“Pakistani propaganda and Kashmiri human rights organizations such as the influential J&K Coalition of Civil Society repeatedly claim that India controls Kashmir by deploying 700,000 security men across the state. It is often claimed that half of the Indian army is based at J&K”

However, the situation has now evolved further. The latest number of Indian security guards in Jammu and Kashmir is 1 million! Yes, that's 1,000,000 troops deployed in Jammu and Kashmir for the express purpose of containing the local population, according to media that don't care much about the facts.

Some others take a more subtle approach; they claim that 500,000 or half a million troops are deployed in Kashmir (against Jammu & Kashmir) to hold the province and 'subjugate' the local population.

In this article, we analyze the likely number of troops deployed in Jammu and Kashmir to deal with internal and external factors. The reason why it is important to consider the external factor is because people tend to forget that the Indian Army is deployed on the Line of Control mainly to prevent any attack by the Pakistan Army to take Jammu and Kashmir by force. Counter-infiltration is only part of your overall responsibility.

Half a million or a million troops in Kashmir? Who said?

Usually, it's the Pakistanis who come in with such fantastic numbers. And indeed, a few years ago, they reached the fantastic number of 1 million Indian soldiers in Kashmir. In a report dated November 30, 2016, Pakistan's Dawn newspaper published the following headline:

“India has deployed over 1 million troops in controlled Kashmir: Ministry of Foreign Affairs”

However, that number did not gain much traction and seems to have died a natural death.

But the situation appears to have changed drastically since the Indian government announced the repeal of Article 370. It was widely reported in the press that the government had transferred a considerable number of Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) personnel to Jammu and Kashmir to deal with any consequences of the decision, both in terms of Law and Order (L&O) and terrorist attempts to disrupt the peace in the state.

This addition of CAPF personnel in J&K has been used by many journalists and news channels to proclaim absolutely absurd and factless figures about the strength of the Indian Army and other security agents deployed in Jammu and Kashmir with the express purpose of 'holding back' the state.

First, let's see who said what –

(1)Deccan ChronicleVikram Sharma– At the top is this distinguished journalist and this newspaper that published this absolutely atrocious headline:

“Forces mobilize 1 million to protect every inch of Kashmir valley”

There are some numbers thrown in the article that don't make sense in the context of the title. Furthermore, it seems that no one in the Deccan Chronicle understands even the basics of math. Because if they did, they would have realized that their own article shows that the number of CAPF employees at J&K, even considering the last increase in numbers, is only 1,05,400. And that the normal CRPF strength in the state is 60,000 (cited in the article itself)

So where are the 8946 Lakh troops? I think the journalist wants readers to find out!

By the way, this is not the only howler in the article. Here's more comedy. Example of this in the article:

“At the International Border (IB), the BSF has a deployment of around 60,000 men, which has also increased in the last month”

First, Jammu and Kashmir shares ONLY 193 kilometers of international border with Pakistan. This boundary runs from the Jammu-Punjab border to the point where the Line of Control (LOC) starts near Akhnoor. Pakistan calls it the Work Frontier. On the Indian side, we have the BSF manning the border, while on the Pakistani side, we have the Rangers. The LOC on both sides is administered by each country's respective army.

Second, what part of the international border is the journalist talking about? And where are these 60,000 soldiers?

And third, what does the deployment of the BSF at the international border (IB) have to do with troops in Jammu and Kashmir or the repeal of Article 370?

Against my better judgement, I hope the journalist does not mean to say that 60,000 BSF employees are deployed on the narrow 193 kilometer working/international border.

(2)Asian eraVikram Sharma– Same journalist, same garbage.

(3)the wire, Farooq Shah– Well, how can 'The Wire' be left behind when it comes to selling such nonsense? However, the author is a little more nuanced and we see the appearance of 'half a million soldiers':

“While India has begun efforts to win its permanent candidacy, it cannot justifypresence ofmore than half a million troops operating in Kashmir”

By the way, this nuanced "half a million" appeared later. Initially, the article had another number. He guesses? Yes…..drum roll………1 million!

From the footnote of the same report:

“The number of army soldiers stationed in Kashmir is approximately half a million, not a million as stated in an earlier version of the article.”

I think someone realized that the 1 million number is too much even for them and halved it. I mean, the last thing they expect is for someone to check that number.

(4)Al Jazeera:When it comes to anti-India propaganda, how can Al Jazeera fall behind? Here again the same number of half a million repeats. Here's how it goes:

"Before India ended Kashmir's special status and divided it into two territories to be directly governed by New Delhi, tens of thousands of Indian troops were deployed to quell a possible uprising, in addition to the half a million troops already stationed there"

(5)So, you have the usual suspects – Forbes.com and The Guardian:

–Forbes.com, Mehrunnisa Wani:

“Initially, 10,000 paramilitary troops were deployed to Indian-occupied Kashmir, adding to the more than half a million troops already present.”

–The Guardian, Mirza Waheed:

"Moreover, it effectively instituted mass detention of Kashmiris by deploying thousands of troops, in addition to the half-million already stationed there."

Is it just me, or does the language seem strangely similar when troop numbers are mentioned? This example of naming a random number of Indian security guards in Jammu and Kashmir is a perfect example of an urban legend being perpetuated by vested interests. Nobody here has done any homework to understand the real picture.

And there is a reason behind it – they are all just not interested! Because half a million or a million soldiers fits perfectly well into the narrative of occupying forces, human rights violations, kind of nonsense of the most dangerous place in the world these dignitaries want to build.

So what is reality? Let's take a look.

How many troops does Pakistan have in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir?

Whenever it comes to the number of troops that India has in Jammu and Kashmir, people forget that the main objective of the Indian Army deployed in Jammu and Kashmir is to stop any attack by the Pakistan Army to capture the state, as it did in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1991. Not only that, the Indian Army is expected to take the fight into Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and regain as much territory as possible.

The strength of the Indian Army deployed in J&K depends on multiple factors – the strength of the Pakistan Army on the other side, offensive and defensive objectives, geographical limitation etc.

Outside military circles, no one has so far made any assessment of the Pakistan Army's willingness to POK to explain the strength of the Indian Army.

In this section, I provide you with a brief analysis of the strength and expansion of the Pakistan Army in opposition to India in the J&K sector. This will inform readers about the type of threat the Indian Army needs to guard against.

What we call POK, Pakistan has divided the same into two geographic segments. One is Azad Jammu and Kashmir while the other is known as Gilgit-Baltistan. Of the total land area of ​​POK, AJK comprises just 15% while the balance of 85% of the area falls in Gilgit Baltistan. For political and geostrategic purposes, Pakistan has separated Gilgit-Baltistan from 'Azad Jammu and Kashmir' and maintains very tight control over the region.

(2.1) Order of Battle (ORBAT) – Pakistan Army

The Pakistan Army has a considerable presence in POK. However, the bulk of the Pakistan Army in this sector is stationed in what Pakistan calls 'Azad Jammu and Kashmir' opposite the Jammu region and the Kashmir Valley. As the LOC in the Gilgit-Baltistan region traverses very high mountainous territory, and the region itself has few narrow valleys to allow for east-west movement or vice versa of troops from both sides, the troop deployment density is low . The very geography of the region is expected to act as the main deterrent to any large-scale attack from India.

The X Corps of Pakistan Army, based in Rawalpindi, is responsible for the defense of the entire Kashmir front. This front extends from the northern tip of the Siachen Glacier to northern Jammu. There are three infantry divisions and an infantry division-equivalent formation under X Corps.

The disruption of Pakistan Army deployment in the region is as follows:

The location of X Corps, its infantry divisions, FCNA and some of the brigades is shown on the map below. In addition, the location of the HQs and corresponding divisions of the Indian Corps is shown on the map. I will explain in more detail the deployment of the Indian Army.

All the green markers on the map represent the Pakistan Army while the blue ones represent the Indian Army. Against 17-18 Pakistan Army infantry brigades in the region, for clarity I have marked the location of only 13 brigades. For security purposes, except for the Siachen Brigade, I have not shown the location of the Indian Army brigades, but only those of the Corps HQ and Infantry/Mountain Divisions positioned in the J&K region.

On the map, you can see the expansion of the Pakistan Army against India in the region. Also visible is the fact that most of the Pakistan Army infantry brigades are very close to the LOC on their side. And it is also quite evident that there is a very heavy Pakistan Army deployment in this sensitive area.

Pakistan Army Force

Now that we know the Pakistan Army ORBAT and its geographical distribution in the region, let's look at the strength of the Pakistan Army. This will give you the context of the Indian Army deployment in the J&K region across the LOC on the Indian side.

We can calculate the strength of the Pakistan Army as follows:

• As the table shows, the Pakistan Army has 17 to 18 infantry brigades deployed against Jammu and Kashmir.
• Now each infantry brigade usually has 3 x infantry battalions.
• But many of the Pakistan Army's brigades in the sector are super powerful, i.e. they have between 4 and 6 infantry battalions.
• For convenience, let's assume that each brigade has 4 x Infantry Battalions.
• Total infantry battalions – 4 x 18 = 72
• Manpower per infantry battalion – 850
• Total Combat Strength – 850 x 72 = 61,200!

Please remember, this is combat manpower only. Each Infantry Division consists of combat and support troops. Support troops include communication, engineers, logistics, transport, military police, medical facilities, artillery, etc. Therefore, the overall strength will be much greater than this number.

The total manpower of an infantry division is 16,000 to 18,000. But since all PA formations are superpowered, it can be safely assumed that the divisions would be larger in size, with an average manpower of 20,000. And in the case of the 12th Infantry Division, since it is almost equivalent to two infantry divisions, we can safely assume 50% more strength, that is, 30,000 soldiers. Add another 10% for various miscellaneous organizations in Corps and Divisions and static formations.

Therefore, between the three infantry divisions and the FCNA, the Pakistan Army has around 100,000 troops deployed in the region. It is my considered opinion that this number is still on the lower side and that to this total we can easily add another ~20,000 troops to cover various static military installations and miscellaneous formations.

Therefore, the final count of the Pakistan Army's deployment in what Pakistan calls AJK and Gilgit-Baltistan (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) is 120,000 troops, which is almost 22% of the active strength of the Pakistan Army..

It is important to remember here that purely from a military point of view, the Pakistan Army has such a large deployment in the region. Not to mention NOT facing any terrorism or insurgency in the areas where these formations are deployed!

To this I have not yet added the component of the Mujahid Battalions. This force is trained on the lines of the Territorial Army and its total strength is60.000. A high percentage of its battalion is deployed by Pakistan Army in AJK for defensive duties.

If we add another 30,000 personnel from this unit, we are talking about 150,000 Pakistan Army soldiers plus reserve troops in the region.

Order of Battle (ORBAT) - Indian Army

Military operations in Jammu and Kashmir fall under the purview of the Indian Army Northern Command based in Udhampur. Northern Command's Area of ​​Responsibility (AOR) extends from the Himachal Pradesh-Tibet border to the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in eastern Ladakh to the Siachen Glacier, then covering an area from Turtok to Kargil to Drass, western Kashmir to northern Jammu.

Northern Command under its ORBAT has three Corps HQs (14 Corps, 15 Corps, and 16 Corps) and seven infantry/mountain divisions. Of these seven infantry/mountain divisions, one mountain division is the Northern Command reserve, which is to be used as needed. Since it parked outside J&K it was not considered to be in working order.

The division of Indian Army in J&K is given in the table below. It also includes the Indian Army engagement along the LAC in eastern Ladakh.

• Without going into brigade level details, let's consider the number of divisions in the J&K area.
• We have a total of 06 divisions and assume each division has ~25,000 troops.
• So, in total, the Indian Army deploys approximately 150,000 troops in the region in its six infantry/mountain divisions from a purely military perspective.
• To that 150,000 add another 20% simply to cover multiple static formations and a few other troops.
• That's a total of ~180,000 troops across the entire J&K theater from East Ladakh to Akhnoor.
• If we remove 3 infantry divisions and other formations dedicated to eastern Ladakh, we have an approximate number of approximately 150,000 troops facing Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

Long story short, there is near parity between the Indian and Pakistani armies when it comes to the strength of troops stationed on either side of the LOC and the Siachen Glacier.

From Indian Army point of view, these troops are needed for attack/defense against Pakistan in the region. From time to time, some troops may be diverted to Counterinsurgency Operations in the Valley, but this is a secondary role. Even if there is a complete absence of terrorism and insurgency in the Valley, these troops would be needed to man the LOC.

So how many troops do we have?

Responsibility for Counter-Insurgency Operations (CI Ops) in the valley falls primarily to Rashtriya Rifles (RR), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and Jammu & Kashmir Police (J&K Police). Each of these organizations has a fixed configuration at J&K and its strength can be verified.

During specific events, such as the Amarnath Yatra and the recent repeal of Article 370, these organizations are augmented with additional troops deployed from outside the state. For example, the Indian Army can divert formations from its conventional configuration to CI Ops or can introduce additional army units from out of state. Likewise, companies from the CRPF and other Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) such as the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Shashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and Border Security Force (BSF) are introduced into the state of other regions.

In this section, we first examine the standard strength of these organizations at J&K. So we also consider the increase in their numbers in the context of recent developments. All information used in this review is based on open source material.

Rifles Rashtriya

Rashtriya rifles, or RR as they are more popularly known, form the backbone of India's CI operations at J&K. The RR consists of men and officers drawn entirely from the Indian Army, although for technical and budgetary reasons it is placed under the Ministry of Home Affairs.

RR Units are a unique Indian Army experiment to create a bespoke combat formation for counterinsurgency operations. And by all accounts, this was a successful experience. From its creation until 2018, when it celebrated 25 years of continuous operation, it neutralized16,300 terrorists.

Ostructure of an RR battalionThe following is:

“Organizationally, the RR is the only regiment where infantry troops and other weapons and services operate under a single flag. Each battalion of 1,200 soldiers has six companies of marines. The infantry component comprises 60 percent of the troops in four rifle companies. Two rifle companies are from other weapons chosen from field artillery, air defense artillery, armor and engineers. The remaining troops made up of Task Oriented Teams from various services are intended to provide logistical support to a RR battalion. These include each RR battalion with an engineer platoon, a signal platoon, a medical detachment, and elements of the Army Service Corps. As this force is employed for CI operations, it does not have heavy weapons like a regular infantry battalion and does not have organic artillery.”

Today, the RR is the largest counterinsurgency force in the world. ORR organizational structure at J&KThe following is:

• There are 05 Counterinsurgency Force (CIF) headquarters in J&K which control all RR units. These CIF Headquarters are in turn controlled by the two Army Corps HQs.
• These Force HQs with their Area of ​​Responsibility (AOR) are as follows:
  • Kilo Force (Força K) – Kupwara, Baramula, Srinagar
  • Victor Force (V Force) – Anantnag, Pulwama, Shopian, Kulgam and Budgam
  • Romeo Force (R Force) – Rajouri e Poonch
  • Forca Delta (Forca D) - Doda
  • Força Uniforme (Força U) – Udhampur and Banihal
• Kilo and Victor Force are under the command of 15 Corps based in Srinagar, while Romeo, Delta and Uniform Force are under the command of 16 Corps based in Nagrota.
• Each Force HQ has several Sectors below it. Each Sector is similar to a Brigade and is responsible for a fixed geography.
• And each Sector controls between 3-4 RR Units that are spread across your AOR. These RR units dominate rural and rural areas and actively hunt terrorists.
• Many of the RR units remain positioned under the direct command and control of Army brigades and divisions, especially in theLOC
• Total HQ Sectors - 17
• Total number of RR battalions – 63
• Strength of each RR Battalion – 1,200
• Total Strength - 75,600
• Add ~4,000+ more for troops and officers manning Sector HQs, CIF HQs, and other support paraphernalia
• Grand total - 80,000 (approximate)

The main counterinsurgency force, which is responsible for nearly all kinetic operations in J&K, is only 80,000 men at full strength.

Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF)

The CRPF plays an important role in the overall safety net of the J&K state. Along with the Jammu and Kashmir Police (JKP), it is responsible for maintaining law and order in the urban areas of the state. It also provides security for major events like the Amarnath Yatra. In addition, it works alongside the Indian Army and RR battalions during CI Operations. While the RR battalions mainly carry out kinetic operations, the CRPF forms the immediate security ring around the rendezvous point.

The force has done a commendable job dealing with rock-throwers and other unrest in the Valley. And it has done so without yielding to massive provocation from the crowd and often at the cost of its own life and limbs. Over the past 2-3 years we have seen numerous videos of crowds complaining, misbehaving and even physically assaulting CRPF parties. Who, despite being armed, did not give in to provocations, accepted these abuses and, instead of retaliating, remained calm.

CRPF strength in the valley

While the exact number of CRPF officials featured in J&K is not publicly available, it is possible to come up with a snippet of information available from various news reports and data mentioned on the official CRPF website.

Before proceeding further, we need to understand that the CRPF has a certain installed capacity in J&K which has permanent headquarters in the state. In addition, based on the requirement(s), other CRPF companies are introduced in the state across the country. For example, during Amarnath Yatra and before the repeal of Article 370, there was a large scale introduction of CRPF companies in the state. In this section, we cover the CRPF force deployed at J&K in both circumstances.

All CRPF companies/battalions in J&K fall under the Jammu and Kashmir Zone (J&K Zone) of the CRPF. This zone is currently responsible for the states of J&K, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, Haryana, Punjab and Chandigarh. The organizational structure and exact deployment are provided below. This information was taken fromthe CRPF India website

• If we simply add all battalions mentioned above (except 23 additional battalions under Kashmir Ops from other CRPF Zones), we get a total of 93 CRPF battalions under J&K Zone.
• However, this is not the correct form because the number of CRPF battalions mentioned against each Sector is also made up of additional battalions from other Sectors within the J&K Zone that have been delegated to them.
• For example, 12 CRPF North Sector battalions are deployed in J&K.
• After removing these duplicate entries, we find that the strength of CRPF battalions and personnel in Jammu and Kashmir state is as follows:

• • CRPF battalions inside CRPF J&K Zone – 48
  • CRPF Battalions from other Zones transferred to J&K – 23
  • Total number of battalions - 71
  • Troops/Battalion – 1,000
  • Total CRPF Strength - 71,000
• The overall number mentioned in the strength of the CRPF in the state is 65,000. For example, this reportEconomic Timesdated August 12, 2019 states:

The Central Reserve Police Force has a permanent deployment of around 65 battalions for security and anti-terrorist duties in Jammu and Kashmir, while it has deployed around 120 new companies to the region to strengthen the internal security grid following the repeal of provisions of the article 370. While a CRPF battalion has an operational force of around 1,000 troops, a company has around 100 soldiers.

• So it's quite possible that I overestimated the strength of J&K's CRPF implementation. But I'll put that aside because I'm trying to understand what the maximum strength of the Indian security forces in J&K is and where does that number stand in relation to the much vaunted 'half a million Indian troops' or its more bizarre cousin – 1 million troops!

indian army

There was a time when the Indian Army deployed substantial infantry resources in J&K for the express purpose of CI Operations. For example, the 8th Mountain Division, which successfully fought most of the Kargil War, was initially deployed to the Kashmir Valley for CI Ops. This division had been transferred from the Northeast in the early 1990s for this task. When the Kargil War broke out, he was the first to respond and proceeded to do most of the fighting under the capable leadership of Major General Mohinder Puri (later Lieutenant General).

However, today, while overall command and control of CI Ops remains with the army's leadership, it is the Rashtriya Rifles who assume primary responsibility for CI Ops. The army may temporarily reassign troops from their formations in the Kashmir Valley to CI Ops, but this does not represent an increase in army deployment in the Kashmir Valley. These troops were already counted in the conventional strength of the army in J&K.

Although, sometimes the army will bring in troops from outside to deal with situations. For example, according to a report inEconomic Times(8 Aug 2019) Indian Army moved an infantry brigade from the North East to Kashmir to strengthen the counter-infiltration grid along the LOC.

Similarly, a brigade of troops was deployed in southern Kashmir when the area began to heat up in the recent past.

For this study, we are assuming that Indian Army introduced 3 infantry brigades in Kashmir for CI Ops. Although two of them were accounted for through news articles, we are taking on one more brigade just for contingency.

Indian Army Force Dedicated to CI Ops:

• Brigades – 03
• Battalions/Brigade – 3
• Men/Battalion – 850
• Total labor - 3 x 3 x 850 = 7,650
• Let's round it up to 8,000 men

Other Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF)

In addition to the CRPF, other important CAPF are the Border Security Force (BSF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Shashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and Assam Rifles.

BSF, ITBP and SSB are primarily responsible for guarding the Indian borders and each force is responsible for a specific geography. For example, BSF protects India's international border with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The ITBP is responsible for the Indo-Tibetan border, while the SSB is responsible for the India-Nepal border.

While no definitive account is available on his involvement in CI Ops in Kashmir, it is highly likely that his deployment in Kashmir for this task is zero to negligible. The main reason is that these forces are trained and deployed for a delicate mission on the borders and cannot spare many troops for other tasks.

However, what is known as BSF deploys12 battalionsalong the LOC at J&K and that these battalions are under the control of the Indian Army.

Even in the recent troop surge in J&K prior to the repeal of Article 370, of the 380 CAPF companies deployed, only 50 came from the ITBP, BSF and SSB. Even here, SSB is contributing 30 out of 50 companies with ITBP and BSF contributing only 10 companies each.

For this analysis, we only considered the recent entry of BSF, ITBP and SSB companies in the state.

periodic increase in numbers

As mentioned earlier, more CRPF companies/battalions are deployed in the Valley in case there is a specific development. Let's take a look at three of these events -

(1) Pulwama Attack –GOI moved more100 companiesfrom the CRPF to the state following the Pulwama suicide attack on the CRPF convoy on 14 February 2019.

(2) Amarnath Yatra –According to various media reports, the CRPF has deployed 40,000 staff to provide security and logistics for the Amarnath Yatra pilgrims. This consisted of troops already in Kashmir as well as those deployed from outside the state for this specific task.This reportfrom the Hindustan Times, dated 11th June 2018, gives the details:

“There is already a permanent deployment of more than 45,000 personnel from the central paramilitary forces…During the Amarnath Yatra, the Center will deploy around 225 companies (about 22,500 troops) from the central forces along the yatra route. Last year, the additional central deployment was about 175 to 180 companies. This year, we put about 5,000 more boots on the ground to protect the route,” an Interior Ministry official said on condition of anonymity.

For the purposes of this study, we assume that the GOI transferred 225 companies or an additional 22,500 employees from the CRPF to the state and, in addition, that these continue to be deployed in J&K.

(3) Article 370 Revocation -Before the news about the repeal of Article 370 was announced, the GOI had transferred a large number of companies from the Central Armed Police Force (CAPF) to the state. In fact, there were two separate news stories about CAPF induction. While it was first reported that 100 companies or 10,000 employees are being inducted, it was followed by a second news about an additional 280 companies, in addition to the 100 companies already mentioned, to be transferred to J&K.

While the breakdown of 100 companies in terms of which CAPF they belong to is available, the breakdown of the balance of 280 companies is not available. Breakup of 100 companies is as follows:

• CRPF – 50 (5,000 men)
• SSB (Shashastra Seema Bal) – 30 (3.000 homens)
• ITBP (Indo-Tibetan Border Police) – 10 (1,000 men)
• BSF (Border Security Force) – 10 (1.000 homens)
• Total – 100 Companies/10,000 men

Reaching 280 companies, according to a report byHindustan Times, most of these troops are from the CRPF. For this study, we assume that all of them are from the CRPF. As it is, for the purpose of this study, the separation does not matter because we are trying to look at the total number of Indian security guards at J&K.

Final numbers of the outbreak:

• CRPF:
  • After Pulwama: 100 companies (10,000 men)
  • Amarnath Yatra: 225 companies (22,500 men)
  • Repeal of Article 370: 50+280 companies (33,000 men)
• SSB (Shashastra Seema Bal) – 30 companies (3,000 men)
• ITBP (Indo-Tibetan Border Police) – 10 companies (1,000 men)
• BSF (Border Security Force) – 10 companies (1,000 men)
• Total – 705 Companies/70,500 men

So what's the final number?

Let's consider the workforce across all organizations involved in CI Ops at J&K as mentioned in this review so far. In addition, I will consider the latest numbers after the troop increase due to various events mentioned earlier.

The numbers look like this:

1. Rifles Rashtriya - 80.000 men
2. CRPF (before outbreak) – 71 battalions/710 companies (71,000 men)
3. CRPF (after outbreak) – 655 companies (65,500 companies)
4. Indian Army – 3 x Infantry Brigades (9 Infantry battalions) – 8,000 men
5. Other CAPF – 50 companies (5,000 men)
6. Total grant: 2,29,500 employees

Now, that's a far cry from the 'half a million' soldiers in J&K that every self-proclaimed defender of human rights and freedom has been screaming about.

And remember, this is the maximum increase number where I've liberally inflated some number to make sure we don't leave anything out. And I'm sure there's double counting going on here, especially with regards to the strength of CRPF companies. The reason is that I assumed that all CRPF companies that were deployed in the valley for 9-10 months stayed with J&K. When the most possible situation is that many of these CRPF companies would have moved out of state upon completion of their duties.

One more aspect of the current distribution of security personnel strength is that today the CRPF constitutes 60% of the state's total security personnel. While RR continues to lead operations, we have come a long way when a mixed RR and Indian Army force used to command all aspects of CI operations. 'Additional' in the chart below means troops introduced into the state for specific events. These are the attacking troops.

But isn't that number already big enough?

The number needs to be seen in the context of the situation on the ground. Security forces have to manage a very large geographical area, ranging from the flat Kashmir valley to the high mountain ranges of Shamshabari and Pir Panjal Range. Furthermore, the Kashmir Valley is quite densely populated with a cluster of villages within walking distance of each other. Troops must dominate both urban/rural areas and the countryside. The aim is not to give freedom of movement to terrorists.

Let's consider some numbers. The combined area of ​​Jammu Division and Kashmir Division of former J&K state is 42,241 square kilometers. It is slightly larger than the area ofNetherlands. And in terms of population, the combined population of this geography is 12.258 million (source: Wikipedia).

So how many troops are needed? Again, going back to aarticle by Colonel Ajai Shukla(retd):

“U.S. military counterinsurgency doctrine, based on its experience in Afghanistan and Iraq, recommends a force level of 20 security personnel for every 1,000 local people in the operational zone”

Now, dividing the population numbers given above (12,258 million) with the number of troops deployed in CI Ops that we just calculated (2,29,500 people), we get a ratio of 53.5.

Long story short, even the maximum deployment of Indian security personnel in J&K, considering geographic, population and political aspects, is quite reasonable. When troops deployed for specific purposes, such as the recent CAPF induction prior to the repeal of Article 370, move away from J&K, this ratio will improve even more.

Conclusion

It is no one's argument that ideally there should be no troops, whether Rashtriya Rifles or CRPF or Indian Army, in the streets and countryside of J&K. However, for this to happen, we will have to reach a level where there is no domestic and Pakistan-backed terrorism in the region. The Indian state simply cannot afford such elements and consequently this requires the security forces to dominate the rural areas and maintain a presence in the urban areas.

While Pakistan-backed terrorism is unlikely to go away any time soon, it is hoped that with the recent reorganization and resulting development in the region, more places will be aligned with India. And that will dampen any fissiparous tendencies.

Finally, for those citing exaggerated random numbers on the number of Indian security guards posted at J&K, because you have an agenda to fulfill, do some research and get your facts straight!